Top 10 Topics For Directors in 2020: International Trade

With almost three years behind President Donald Trump to launch, negotiate, and complete his most ambitious trade initiatives, 2020 may come to be seen as the first year that the Trump era in trade policy was fully in place. In the opening weeks of 2020, the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) will likely see final passage, the details of an interim deal with China will be fully revealed, a narrow agreement with Japan will be implemented and the World Trade Organization Appellate Body (WTOAB) will remain incapable of issuing rulings. In short, this will weaken the multi-lateral system and embolden a United States President to remake bilateral trading relationships to his own advantage.

Looking ahead to new initiatives, the United States and United Kingdom appear increasingly likely to negotiate a new trade agreement with great urgency following the completion of Brexit by January 31, 2020 while trade tensions with the European Union (EU) are set to escalate.

This trade record will be a cornerstone of his "Promise Made, Promises Kept" campaign message where trade may once again be a defining issue. Here is a review of 2019 trade policy and what to expect in the coming year:

United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). In the closing legislative days of 2019, Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer reached a historic deal to amend the USMCA in ways that secured not only the support of the House Democratic Working Group and Congressional leadership, but also the American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations (AFLCIO). This marks the first time in almost 20 years that the nation's largest union has supported a trade deal. The changes include, among others, provisions to ensure stronger enforcement through state-to-state arbitration panels and on-the-ground facility inspections, as well as the elimination of intellectual property protections for biologic drugs. The U.S. Senate is now slated to take up the agreement after the Finance Committee passed it by an overwhelming bipartisan margin of 25-3. With the impeachment trial delayed, the Senate may pass the agreement as early as next week if procedural hurdles can be overcome. China. The President also reached an end-of-year agreement with China, stabilizing relations with the U.S.' largest bilateral trading partner after 18 months of tit-for-tat tariff escalation. Under the...