Peeking Around The Legislative Corner: The Landscape Of The Lame-Duck And 2017

Now that the US Congress has resolved the continuing resolution and Zika funding, we look ahead to the anticipated lame-duck session and then to 2017 term. While the exact details of how both of these will play out are dependent on the outcome of the November 2016 elections, there are some broad parameters that should be consistent regardless of the election outcomes and that stakeholders can rely on to start planning now.

LAME-DUCK

Funding

In the lame-duck, we expect a large legislative package that would provide comprehensive funding for the federal government through the end of the current fiscal year (September 30, 2017). The commitment to resolve funding for Flint, Michigan, and other water infrastructure funding in the Water Resources Development Act bill will mean that those issues are also addressed, though Congress still needs to determine whether such funding gets rolled into one large bill or rides on its own. Also, either incorporated in one giant omnibus piece of legislation or running alongside the funding bill will be legislation that addresses Medicare and legislation on some tax policy. It is also possible that additional legislation with respect to the fiscal crisis in Puerto Rico could be considered.

The omnibus spending will likely adhere closely to the existing budget caps negotiated by former Speaker John Boehner prior to his retirement. Negotiations will center on which policy riders to include, with the exact nature of those riders heavily dependent on the outcome of the elections. Depending on the outcome of several pending Federal Communications Commission (FCC) proceedings, for instance, the riders could include restrictions on the FCC's authority over video navigation devices and privacy.

The viability of such riders will also depend on whether current House Speaker Paul Ryan needs Democratic votes to pass the funding legislation. If he does, the final legislation will include fewer policy riders.

Medicare

Congress may also address a pending increase in premiums for Medicare Part B. If so, we expect that Congress will do so in a manner similar to the last time Congress addressed this problem. Premium increases will be put off and, for purposes of meeting congressional budget rules, the difference will be assumed to be made up later in the budget window. We have no expectation that these future premium increases will actually come to pass. Instead Congress will create another perpetual issue: i.e., an ongoing...

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