Midterm 2018 Postgame: What The Outcome Means For Higher Ed

On October 31, Thompson Coburn's education team hosted a webinar for the higher education community in advance of the midterm elections. Special thanks to our friends Kim Jones from the Council for Opportunity in Education and Kevin Cain from the Association of American Veterinary Colleges for joining us for our live panel discussion.

As promised during the webinar, we are posting this blog to break down the election results and look ahead to the 116th Congress. You may have more questions than answers after a long election night! We hope our postgame commentary will break through the confusion and help you plan for 2019.

A bird's eye view

The Democrats took back the House, which has been in GOP control since 2010. Though they only needed to flip 23 seats to regain their majority, the Democrats flipped at least 33 — a slightly better performance than many polls had anticipated.

The president's party often struggles in midterms, as President Obama and the Democrats did in 2010. On average, the president's party loses 22 seats, or 35 if the president's approval rating is below 50%. Because President Trump's approval rating has hovered around 41%, one might characterize the Democrats' wins this week as underwhelming — and certainly far less striking than the 63 seats the Republicans picked up in 2010. While the Democrats achieved their goal of winning back the majority, the size and strength of the so-called "Blue Wave" is up for debate.

What does this new balance of power in the House mean?

Broadly speaking, beyond substantive legislative initiatives such as infrastructure, lowering prescription drug prices, and immigration reform, expect House Democrats to focus heavily on oversight of the Trump Administration and its policies. Come January, Democratic committee chairs will acquire sweeping subpoena and oversight powers that will complicate governance for the Administration. We also expect to see significant movement in committee assignments on both sides of the aisle, though actual roles will not be confirmed for several weeks.

There were surprise victories for both parties Tuesday night, as Democrats sought to break Republican strongholds in districts across the nation. Democrat Jennifer Wexton unseated two-term Republican Barbara Comstock in Northern Virginia's 10th District. In Kentucky, Republican Representative Andy Barr edged out Democratic challenger and former Marine Amy McGrath. Democrat Donna Shalala was elected to a seat in...

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