Final Forecast: The Battle For The U.S. Senate

McDermott Will & Emery Senior Advisor Jon Decker updates a state-by-state examination of the 33 U.S. Senate election races in 2012. Since the last forecast seven months ago, Jon's prediction on the status of several races has shifted, and Democrats appear to have an edge. Prior to joining McDermott, Jon was the White House correspondent for Reuters Television and he has been a member of the White House Press Corps since 1995. The information expressed in this piece contains the author's predictions (not the Firm's), which are based on current information and forecasting, and are not intended to be an endorsement of any candidate.

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With just three weeks until election day, the battle for control of the U.S. Senate is in the homestretch. Since the last forecast, the map has changed dramatically, with Democrats showing a bit of momentum. As a reminder, Democrats currently maintain a slim 53-47 majority in the upper chamber. Chances of a Republican takeover appear to be slipping away, however.

In the 2012 cycle, there are 33 Senate races on the ballot. Twenty-three of those are currently held by Democrats; 10 are for open seats. As things stand, there are eight races that can be considered truly competitive.

What follows is an updated analysis and forecast of each of those Senate races. Although three weeks is an eternity in politics, this is an educated forecast based on current information as to the way the Senate map would look if the Presidential election were held today.

State

Prediction

Arizona

Open seat, leans Republican (Six-term Rep. Jeff Flake is expected to beat Democrat Richard Carmona and retain the seat now held by Sen. Jon Kyl)

California

Safe Democrat (Sen. Dianne Feinstein is expected to easily win her fourth full term in the U.S. Senate)

Connecticut

Open seat, toss-up(Three-term Rep. Chris Murphy is running even with Linda McMahon, the former CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment, in this Democratic-leaning state)

Delaware

Safe Democrat (Sen. Tom Carper is expected to be re-elected to serve his third term)

Florida

Leans Democrat (Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson should beat back a challenge from Republican Rep. Connie Mack IV)

Hawaii

Open seat, leans Democrat (Thanks in part to a large turnout for Hawaiian native President Obama, Democratic Rep. Mazie Hirono should edge out former two-term Republican Gov. Linda Lingle)

Indiana

Toss-up(A seat that should be firmly in the Republican column is up for grabs, and...

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