Examining The Vote Totals From The Recall Primary

Previously published in MacIver Institute

Walker May Fall in Dane County (But It Won't Hurt Too Bad)

Bob Dole once proclaimed, "There's going to be an election tomorrow -- Someone's going to win, someone's going to lose, and I want to be that person." He certainly was correct about the "someone's going to win, someone's going to lose," part. In Wisconsin, voters have now determined who the two "someones" are and on June 5 will determine the winner.

With the Walker v. Barrett matchup now officially locked in place, I set out on a number-crunching project which only a true political geek would enjoy. My task was to prepare a county-by-county and region-by-region electoral model of what the June 5 recall election could look like. What would a Walker win look like? What would a Barrett win look like?

Well, I'm still not finished because a funny thing happened to me on my way to preparing that election projection. I stumbled upon some fascinating data in Walker's 2010 election results.

It's no secret that Walker will be soundly defeated in Madison and Milwaukee in the recall. What may surprise some is that, in 2010, Walker's statewide victory came in the face of decisive defeats in the two largest counties. Walker has already shown he can win an election in the face of unusually high turnout in Milwaukee and Dane counties and while performing relatively poorly (even for a Republican) in those counties.

In the head-to-head 2010 vote, Walker defeated Barrett by 5.8% or nearly 125,000 votes. Conventional wisdom is that Walker's vote share will decline in the upcoming recall and the race will be closer to 50/50. Recent polling indicates this conventional wisdom may, in fact, be wise.

Many also believe that Walker will see a significant slide in Madison and Milwaukee -- the two greatest Democrat strongholds in the state. Dane County in particular has thousands of public employees and was the epicenter of the 2011 protests. The question is this: How far will Walker slide in Milwaukee and Dane counties as compared to 2010?

When I compared Walker's performance in Dane and Milwaukee counties in 2010 to that of Republican candidate Mark Green in 2006, I came to realize the slide may not be as great as many believe. The reason is that Walker in 2010 had not climbed very high on the vote ladder in these two counties to begin with. In these two counties, the Governor's performance in 2010 was much closer to the GOP floor than to the ceiling.

Let's start by...

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